Bitcoin breaks above its hourly moving averages. Can buyers keep control?

<p>Bitcoin buyers are making another play to the upside today. After finding support near $82,923, just above a key swing area, the price has pushed above both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages.</p><p>That improves the technical picture for the buyers. However, getting above those moving averages is one step. Staying above them—and building on the break—is what matters next.</p><p>The swing area provided the foundation</p><p></p><p>Over the last week or so, bitcoin extended above a key swing area between $81,517 and $82,833. That break helped propel the price toward highs near $87,334, reached on Monday and again on Wednesday of last week.</p><p>The buyers had their shot to extend higher from there, but momentum stalled. The price rotated back to the downside and returned to the upper end of the earlier swing area.</p><p>Monday’s low reached approximately $82,500, taking the price back inside that area. However, sellers could not sustain a deeper move lower. The subsequent corrective rally stalled against the 200-hour moving average, keeping a lid on the upside until today’s renewed push.</p><p>Today, buyers stepped in near $82,923, just above the $82,833 upper boundary. That support held, and the price rotated higher with enough momentum to clear both hourly moving averages.</p><p>The moving averages now define the risk</p><p>Today’s rally has taken bitcoin above:</p><ul><li><p>$83,855: The 100-hour moving average.</p></li><li><p>$84,316: The 200-hour moving average.</p></li></ul><p>Those levels now represent close risk for buyers looking for more upside.</p><p>The 200-hour moving average at $84,316 is the first hurdle on a pullback. Stay above it, and buyers retain the stronger technical position. A move below would take some of the steam out of today’s breakout and put the focus on the 100-hour moving average at $83,855.</p><p>If the price falls below both moving averages and stays below, disappointment would increase. Buyers would have broken above resistance but failed to hold the break. That would put the $82,833 swing level back in play, followed by Monday’s low near $82,500 and the lower boundary of the swing area at $81,517.</p><p>For now, though, the buyers have taken back control above the moving averages. They need to defend that position.</p><p>What are the next upside targets?</p><p>With the moving averages broken, the next upside target comes in at $86,117. Above that, traders will focus on last week’s high near $87,334.</p><p>That high is an important test. Buyers stalled there twice last week. A move above—and staying above—would show that they are making progress beyond the earlier ceiling.</p><p>The next higher target is the January 23 and January 27 swing-high area near $90,554.</p><p>Beyond that, the focus shifts toward $92,000. That area combines natural round-number resistance with the 50% midpoint of the decline from the all-time high reached in October of last year. Having two technical references near the same price makes it an area to watch for another battle between buyers and sellers.</p><p>Key technical levels</p><p></p><p>Upside targets</p><ul><li><p>$86,117: Next upside target.</p></li><li><p>$87,334: Last week’s high and a key breakout hurdle.</p></li><li><p>$90,554: January 23 and January 27 swing-high area.</p></li><li><p>Near $92,000: 50% retracement and natural resistance.</p></li></ul><p>Support and buyer risk</p><ul><li><p>$84,316: 200-hour moving average; first support on a pullback.</p></li><li><p>$83,855: 100-hour moving average; lower boundary of the immediate risk area.</p></li><li><p>$82,833: Upper boundary of the key swing area.</p></li><li><p>$82,500: Monday’s corrective low.</p></li><li><p>$81,517: Lower boundary of the key swing area.</p></li></ul><p>A lesson for beginner traders: Let the breakout define the risk</p><p>A break above a moving average gives traders a reference point for judging whether a move is working.</p><p>Before today’s rally, the 200-hour moving average limited the upside. With the price now above it, buyers want that former resistance to become support. If a pullback holds above the moving average and the price turns higher again, that supports the bullish case.</p><p>If the price falls back below both hourly moving averages and stays below, the evidence changes. The breakout has lost momentum, and buyers have less technical support for their position.</p><p>That is the benefit of defining risk with technical levels. Traders can identify what needs to hold and what would weaken their view, instead of simply hoping the price continues higher.</p><p>The buyers are making a play. Stay above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, and they have the technical foundation to keep pushing toward the next targets. Move back below both, and today’s breakout starts to lose its appeal.</p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.