Bitcoin remains stuck in a range as US-Iran talks cap gains despite Fed's Williams support

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">Bitcoin has been consolidating since last Wednesday, with ongoing US-Iran tensions keeping a lid of further gains. The backdrop has improved somewhat, however, as renewed optimism around the negotiations has helped ease concerns over an escalation.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">The US and Iran remain engaged in talks aimed at reaching an agreement on Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days under certain conditions. The latest reports suggest that the main disagreement is now over the sequencing and implementation of the measures, rather than the substance of the proposal itself.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">Bitcoin also received some support from <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-s-williams-one-more-hike-likely-this-year-is-likely-enough/" rel="follow">Fed’s Williams</a> yesterday. He said there was no urgency to raise rates following the September hike and that another increase would likely be appropriate if the economy continued to perform as expected. His comments triggered a dovish repricing in rate expectations, with the probability of an October hike falling from around 70% to roughly 45%.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">Looking ahead, US-Iran developments will remain the key focus. A breakthrough in negotiations could provide further support for Bitcoin as expectations for aggressive Fed tightening will likely get pared back. Conversely, a prolonged stalemate or renewed escalation would likely keep risk sentiment under pressure and limit Bitcoin's upside.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BITCOIN/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Bitcoin</a>is consolidating at the broken resistance-turned-support zone around the 82,500 level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the upward trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to extend the drop into the 76,000 support next.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation between the 82,500 support and the 85,000 resistance. The buyers will continue to step in around the support, with a defined risk below it, to keep targeting a rally into the 90,000 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the major trendline.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the market participants will likely continue to play the range by buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout on either side.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 103%; font-size: 15px;"><a href="https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar" rel="follow">Today</a>we have the US ADP and the US PCE price index. Tomorrow, we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. The focus, though, will remain on US-Iran developments.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.