Bitcoin sellers defend key resistance and take back control. Back below 100 bar MA level.

<p>The price of bitcoin is moving lower with the current price trading down -$1300 or 1.64% at $77012. The move lower comes after buyers ran out of steam near resistance targets. </p><p></p><p>Technically, looking at the 4 hour chart above, the Bitcoin buyers had their shot on the move higher off of the end of June low, but the rally stalled at $82,281 last Friday. That high was within the $80,560 to $82,833 swing area but getting above the 38.2% retracement ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the all-time high reached in October at $83,916. Getting above the 38.2% retracement is a minimum target for buyers if they are to take more control. Instead sellers leaned against that resistance zone/retracement level, where risk could be defined and limited, and pushed the price back to the downside. Buyers had their shot, they missed.  </p><p>The subsequent move below the 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at $78,850 gave the sellers more control in the short term. That moving average is now the key risk-defining level. Stay below it, and the bias remains more bearish. Move back above it, and the sellers could become disappointed on the failed break.</p><p>On the downside, the next key target is the lower swing area between $74,262 and $76,977. The rising 200-bar moving average near $73,275 is just below that zone and adds to the area’s technical importance.</p><p>Buyers need to hold the lower swing area and then reclaim the 100-bar moving average at $78,850 to start to take back more control. Ultimately, getting above $82,833 and the 38.2% retracement at $83,916 would be required to give the buyers firmer control after the short move lower from the all-time high reached in October 2025.</p><p>For sellers they now need to keep the price below the 100-bar moving average and push through the lower swing area. A break below the rising 200-bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at $73,276 would increase the bearish bias.</p><p>The lesson for traders is that swing areas and retracement levels often attract traders because they provide clear locations to define risk. In this case, sellers used the upper resistance zone to lean against, and they were rewarded with a rotation back below a key moving average.</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">For those that like the fundamental storyline (it can be dicey with Bitcoin), the price is trading lower today as several fundamental headwinds come together:</p><ul><li>Higher inflation pressures: U.S. producer prices remained elevated, reinforcing concerns that inflation is not coming down quickly enough. </li><li>Treasury yields are moving higher: The 10-year yield has climbed toward 4.90%. Higher yields make risk-free assets more attractive and generally reduce demand for speculative assets such as Bitcoin. </li><li>A stronger U.S. dollar: Bitcoin is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar often creates an additional headwind. </li><li>Reduced expectations for easier Fed policy: The inflation data and surging energy prices have increased the probability of another Fed rate hike. Bitcoin generally performs better when liquidity is plentiful and interest rates are falling. </li><li>Oil and Middle East tensions: Brent crude has moved above $100 amid concerns about shipping disruptions. Higher energy prices increase inflation risks and encourage a broader move away from risk. </li><li>Liquidation-related selling: Roughly $246 million of cryptocurrency positions were liquidated during the previous 24-hour period. Once Bitcoin breaks support, leveraged longs can be forced to sell, accelerating the decline. </li><li>Caution ahead of CPI: Traders are also reducing exposure ahead of Friday’s U.S. CPI report, which could further influence Fed expectations.</li></ul><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.