Bitcoin sellers make a play below the range. Can they keep control?

<p>Last week, the bitcoin buyers had their shot.</p><p></p><p>On Tuesday, they pushed the price above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages—the blue and green lines—and that break gave them the technical go-ahead to probe higher. The buying subsequently took the price above the ceiling near $84,178 and to a weekly high of $84,774 on Wednesday.</p><p>That was the opportunity for the buyers to take more control. They had cleared the hourly moving averages and broken above a familiar resistance level. The next step was to hold those breaks and build on the upside momentum.</p><p>They could not do it.</p><p>The price rotated lower as risk-off sentiment weighed on bitcoin. On Thursday, the decline took the price back below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, then near $82,225 and $82,400. The bullish technical picture from earlier in the week shifted back in favor of the sellers.</p><p>The failed rebound helped confirm the shift</p><p>On Friday, the price bounced back toward the 200-hour moving average, but sellers leaned against that level and pushed the price lower into the weekend.</p><p>That retest is an important part of the technical story.</p><p>A break below a moving average is an initial bearish development. When the price subsequently returns to that moving average and finds sellers, it provides additional evidence that traders are using the level to define resistance and risk.</p><p>For sellers, the trade becomes more clearly defined: stay below the moving average and the bearish bias remains intact. Move back above it and stay above, and that bearish view starts to lose support.</p><p>Friday’s rejection kept the sellers in control. The decline continued to a Saturday low of $79,146.</p><p>Today, another move lower reached $79,260, just above that weekend low. Buyers have therefore shown some willingness to defend the same general area, but the rebound has been limited. After bouncing to $80,400, the price has rotated back toward $79,779.</p><p>There is a difference between stopping the decline and taking back control. So far, the buyers have managed the first. They still have work to do on the second.</p><p>What keeps the sellers in control?</p><p>The immediate technical barometers are the falling hourly moving averages:</p><ul><li><p>100-hour moving average: $80,797</p></li><li><p>200-hour moving average: $81,620</p></li></ul><p>As long as the price remains below those levels, the short-term bias favors the sellers.</p><p>The 100-hour moving average is the first hurdle. Buyers need to get above it and stay above it to show that the recovery has some traction. A move above the 200-hour moving average would provide further evidence that control is shifting back toward the buyers.</p><p>Why emphasize “stay above”?</p><p>Because last week provided a reminder that a break alone is not enough. The buyers cleared resistance, but they could not sustain the move. Follow-through matters. A brief push above a level that quickly reverses can leave traders caught on the wrong side and fuel a move in the opposite direction.</p><p>Sellers still need the next shove lower</p><p>Although the hourly moving averages favor the downside, the sellers also have something to prove.</p><p>The weekend low at $79,146 is the next key downside hurdle. Today’s low at $79,260 stalled just above it, making that area the immediate battleground.</p><p>A break below $79,146, followed by an inability to recover back above it, would strengthen the bearish case and open the door toward the next major technical targets:</p><ul><li><p>$76,052: The 38.2% retracement of the move higher from the June 30 low.</p></li><li><p>$75,597: The rising 100-day moving average.</p></li></ul><p>Those levels bring the broader daily picture into focus.</p><p>The hourly moving averages help define the shorter-term trading bias. The retracement and 100-day moving average provide reference points for how far a larger correction could extend. They are potential destinations if selling builds, rather than guarantees that the price will get there.</p><p></p><p>The bigger question: A range break or another failed move?</p><p>Since September 18, bitcoin has spent most of its time trading between roughly $80,000 and $87,374.</p><p>Over the weekend and again today, the sellers have made a play below the lower boundary of that range. Now they need to show they can keep the price outside it.</p><p>A sustained range break should attract follow-through. If the price instead moves back above $80,000, that would be an initial warning that the downside break is losing momentum. However, the buyers would still need to reclaim the hourly moving averages to strengthen their case.</p><p>That leaves a straightforward technical roadmap.</p><p>Below the hourly moving averages, the sellers retain the short-term advantage. Below $79,146, they have a chance to extend that advantage toward the deeper daily targets.</p><p>Conversely, a sustained move above $80,797 and then $81,620 would put the buyers back in the game and raise the risk that the break below the range has failed.</p><p>Last week, the buyers had their shot and could not sustain the upside break. Now the sellers have theirs.</p><p>They need to keep the pressure on—or risk giving control back.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.