Bitcoin sellers regain the short-term advantage ahead of weekend trading

<p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">What is Bitcoin’s price action telling traders?</p><p>As Friday moves toward its conclusion and Bitcoin transitions into weekend trading, the price action is sending a fairly clear message: neither buyers nor sellers have taken firm control of the broader range, but the shorter-term bias has tilted back in favor of the sellers.</p><p>Bitcoin has been trading in an up-and-down range since August 21. The lower boundary comes between $75,688 and $76,229, while the upper boundary is between $81,517 and $82,281. Those areas continue to define the larger battle between buyers and sellers.</p><p></p><p>Sellers had their shot at the range floor</p><p>Earlier this week, Bitcoin tested the lower support area between $75,688 and $76,229. Sellers had their shot to push through the floor, but they could not sustain a break.</p><p>When a market tests an important support area and fails to break it, short sellers may begin covering positions while dip buyers step in. That combination helped propel Bitcoin higher during today’s trading.</p><p>Buyers had their shot—but also fell short</p><p>The buyers then had their opportunity to take greater control. The price moved toward the week’s high near $80,500, but the rally stalled ahead of that level and just below the psychologically important $80,000 mark, reaching a high of $79,837.</p><p>That failure was significant because Bitcoin could not sustain its momentum above the nearby hourly moving averages. The price subsequently rotated back below the 200-hour moving average at $79,104 and the 100-hour moving average at $78,218.</p><p>With Bitcoin currently trading near $77,277, the market is back below both technical barometers.</p><p>The moving averages define the near-term bias</p><p>The 100-hour moving average at $78,218 and the 200-hour moving average at $79,104 now define the shorter-term bias.</p><p>Staying below both moving averages keeps the bias tilted more to the downside and gives sellers greater control. Moving back above those levels would shift the technical picture in a more bullish direction.</p><p>Although the near-term bias is more bearish, the sellers still have work to do. It will take a move below $76,229—and ultimately a sustained break below $75,688—to give sellers greater confidence that the range floor has finally been broken.</p><p>A sustained move below that area could attract additional selling as dip buyers exit and momentum traders react to the failed support.</p><p>What do buyers need to do?</p><p>For buyers, the first job is to reclaim the 100-hour moving average at $78,218. A move above that level would shift the focus toward the 200-hour moving average at $79,104.</p><p>Trading between those two moving averages would create a more neutral intraday bias, with the market effectively waiting for the next shove.</p><p>Getting above both moving averages—and staying above—would give buyers more control and reopen the door toward $80,000, followed by the week’s high near $80,500. Beyond that, the larger upside targets remain the upper range boundaries at $81,517 and $82,281.</p><p>The fundamental and weekend considerations</p><p>From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin continues to trade as both a cryptocurrency and a broader risk asset. Changes in Treasury yields, expectations for Federal Reserve policy, movements in the U.S. dollar and the overall appetite for risk can all influence demand.</p><p>Lower yields and a softer dollar can provide support for Bitcoin, while rising yields and a stronger dollar can create headwinds by making interest-bearing assets relatively more attractive.</p><p>There is also a weekend consideration. Bitcoin trades continuously, but liquidity can thin after traditional markets close on Friday. With fewer market participants, relatively modest orders can sometimes generate larger-than-normal price moves.</p><p>As a result, traders should be careful about chasing a weekend breakout unless Bitcoin can remain beyond the key technical level. A quick move through support or resistance followed by an equally quick reversal can be a sign of a false break rather than the beginning of a sustained trend.</p><p>The roadmap for weekend trading</p><p>The technical roadmap heading into the weekend is well defined.</p><p>Below the 100-hour moving average at $78,218 and the 200-hour moving average at $79,104, the sellers hold the near-term advantage. A break below $76,229 and then $75,688 would strengthen the bearish picture.</p><p>Conversely, a recovery above both hourly moving averages would give buyers another opportunity to attack $80,000, the week’s high near $80,500, and eventually the upper range between $81,517 and $82,281.</p><p>For beginner traders, this is a good example of how moving averages and range boundaries can work together. The moving averages define the shorter-term bias and provide closer risk-defining levels. The range extremes identify the more important breakout points that could lead to the next larger directional move.</p><p>Until one side breaks outside the broader range—and stays outside—the market remains in a battle. For now, the sellers have the short-term advantage, but they still need to break the range floor to take greater control.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.