Chainalysis estimates $5.9B stolen in suspected Binance hack, nearly 4 times Bybit

<p dir="ltr">The Chainalysis estimate turns a containable loss into a balance-sheet question for Binance. A gap near $1 billion could be covered by SAFU, but one over $3 billion would test the exchange’s finances. That matters most for BNB, whose value is closely tied to Binance’s health. With deposits and withdrawals still frozen, any easing of selling pressure has to wait until Binance confirms the loss and explains how it will pay. Bitcoin and ether are more exposed to sentiment and liquidity at Binance than to the loss itself.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/binance-halts-deposits-and-withdrawals-pledges-to-cover-all-losses-from-suspected-hack" rel="follow" target="_blank">Binance halts deposits and withdrawals, pledges to cover all losses from suspected hack</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1);">... as it happened:</p><ol class="atlas-list-numbered" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1);"><li style="vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0;"><a class="article-link" href="https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/tether-freezes-971m-usdt-amid-suspected-binance-hack-as-crypto-sells-off/" rel="follow" style="vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0; color: rgba(140, 77, 223, 1); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;" target="_self">Tether freezes $971M USDT amid suspected Binance hack as crypto sells off</a></li><li style="vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0;"><a class="article-link" href="https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/binance-appears-hacked-cz-says-as-tether-and-circle-freeze-1-79b-in-stablecoins/" rel="follow" style="vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0; color: rgba(140, 77, 223, 1); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;" target="_self">Binance appears hacked, CZ says, as Tether and Circle freeze $1.79B in stablecoins</a></li><li style="vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0;"><a class="article-link" href="https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/binance-pauses-withdrawals-after-suspected-3b-hack-as-tether-circle-freeze-2-4b/" rel="follow" style="vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0; color: rgba(140, 77, 223, 1); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;" target="_self">Binance pauses withdrawals after suspected $3B+ hack as Tether, Circle freeze $2.4B</a></li></ol><p dir="ltr"> Chainalysis puts the suspected Binance hack at $5.9 billion, which turns Binance’s promise to cover every loss from reassuring to expensive.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Chainalysis estimates about $5.912 billion was stolen in the suspected Binance hack, according to CoinDesk.</li><li>That’s nearly four times the roughly $1.5 billion taken from Bybit in 2025, previously crypto’s largest theft.</li><li>Binance says $2.54 billion has been frozen, leaving about $3.4 billion potentially unrecovered on the Chainalysis figure.</li><li>The gap far exceeds Binance’s roughly $1 billion SAFU emergency fund, so most of any shortfall would fall on its balance sheet.</li><li>The estimate is well above CZ’s earlier suggestion that losses after freezes were slightly over $1 billion.</li><li>Binance has not confirmed a loss figure, and deposits and withdrawals remain suspended.</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis estimates about $5.912 billion was stolen in the suspected hack of Binance, CoinDesk reported on Friday, 30 October. That’s nearly four times the 2025 Bybit theft, which previously held the record as crypto’s largest. The estimate is the first from a major analytics firm, and it sits at the top of the range of on-chain tallies circulating since Thursday evening.</p><p dir="ltr">The figure sharply raises the stakes for Binance’s pledge to cover all losses. The exchange has said verified frozen assets total $2.54 billion, most of it 1.567 billion USDT frozen by Tether and more than 800 million USDC frozen by Circle. Set against Chainalysis’s estimate, that leaves roughly $3.4 billion outside the freezes, though the gap could narrow if more funds are traced and blocked.</p><p dir="ltr">That is well beyond Binance’s Secure Asset Fund for Users, or SAFU, an emergency reserve of about $1 billion in bitcoin. If the Chainalysis estimate holds, most of any shortfall would have to come from Binance’s own balance sheet. The exchange has not said how it would fund the pledge. Frozen tokens are also not the same as recovered ones, since returning them through issuers or courts typically takes weeks.</p><p dir="ltr">The estimate also sits awkwardly with earlier signals. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao had suggested losses after freezes may be slightly above $1 billion, while earlier on-chain reviews focused on about $3.3 billion leaving Binance’s Ethereum hot wallets. The Chainalysis number appears closer to wider tallies of around $5.6 billion that also include bitcoin and Tron outflows, which some analysts had cautioned were not yet tied to the attacker. Chainalysis has not published a breakdown, and Binance has not confirmed any loss figure.</p><p dir="ltr">Binance has suspended all deposits and withdrawals while it runs security checks and works with law enforcement, and it has promised a full post-mortem. It has given no date for reopening and has not said how the attacker gained access or who was responsible.</p><p dir="ltr">For scale, hackers stole about $1.5 billion from Bybit in February 2025, an attack the FBI attributed to North Korea. No agency or analytics firm has attributed the Binance incident to any group so far.</p><p dir="ltr">The next questions are whether Binance confirms or disputes the Chainalysis figure, how much more of the stolen funds can be frozen, and how the exchange will pay for losses that could run into billions of dollars. Those answers are likely to set the direction for BNB, Binance’s own token, which has borne the brunt of the selling since the outflows were first spotted.</p><p dir="ltr">For how the incident has unfolded so far, see our earlier reports on <a href="https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/binance-pauses-withdrawals-after-suspected-3b-hack-as-tether-circle-freeze-2-4b/" rel="follow">Binance pausing withdrawals after the suspected hack</a> and its pledge to cover all losses.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.