Ethereum is coiling for a breakout amid US-Iran tensions: Where will it go?

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">Ethereum has come under some pressure recently as US-Iran tensions dominated the price action.   The negative sentiment started last Wednesday when Trump poured cold water on expectations of an earlier end to the Iran war after he repeated that the US would make a deal with Tehran after the November elections. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Heading into the weekend though, the hopes for a US-Iran deal returned after Iran sent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days on certain conditions. Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-rejects-iran-ceasefire-expects-renewed-bombing-after-midterms-5982ee50" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Trump rejected the proposal on Saturday and told reporters that he expected to resume bombing Iran after the midterms</a>. That has kept a lid on the crypto market. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Yesterday, we started to get some positive headlines during the American session pointing to possible US concessions. <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/28/trump-iran-war-sanctions-blockade-nuclear" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">According to Axios</a>, Trump reportedly offered Iran sanctions relief and access to frozen funds in exchange for progress on nuclear program, although the US President later denied such reports. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">He did confirm though that the American and Iranian negotiators are engaged in talks through mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he expected a formal answer today to Tehran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">With the lack of Ethereum-specific catalysts on the horizon, the focus will remain on the Middle East and the Fed. A breakthrough would be positive for Ethereum as the aggressive rate hike bets will likely get pared back. A negative outcome, on the other hand, will likely continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHUSD/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Ethereum</a>is consolidating near the major upward trendline. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to position for a rally into the 3,000 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 2,360 level next. </p><p>ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we have a resistance zone around the 2,720 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past days. The sellers will likely continue to step in around the resistance, with a defined risk above it, to keep targeting the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the 3,000 level next.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the resistance and on the break of the trendline, while the buyers will look for a rejection around the trendline or a break above the resistance to position for new highs.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 103%; font-size: 15px;"><a href="https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar" rel="follow">Today</a>, we get the US Consumer Confidence report and the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we have the US ADP and the US PCE price index. On Thursday, we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. The focus, though, will remain on US-Iran developments.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.