Ethereum remains under pressure amid intensifying geopolitical and macro risks. What's next?

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Ethereum's fundamental outlook remains mixed, with protocol development and institutional accumulation providing support, while the macro environment remains a headwind. US spot Ethereum ETFs have recently recorded substantial outflows amid deteriorating risk sentiment. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">In the near term, the geopolitical and macroeconomic picture are likely to matter more for price action than Ethereum’s protocol upgrade alone. Rising oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, higher Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations continue to put pressure on the crypto market, so traders will need to see some easing in those concerns to start positioning for new highs.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">The negotiations between the US and Iran remain at a stalemate, and the Houthis are intensifying attacks on Saudi Arabia, raising supply disruption risks and supporting oil prices.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Today, the focus will be on the US CPI report. Traders will mainly look at the core m/m measure as Fed members have been focusing on the monthly pace of core inflation to determine how many rate hikes will be needed and how quickly they should tighten policy.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">An uptick to 0.3% might not be enough for the market to fully expect a hike in October, but a jump to 0.4% should do it. In such a case, we will likely see a selloff in Ethereum on a hawkish repricing. An in-line or even lower than expected figure, on the other hand, could lead to a short-term relief rally for the cryptocurrency.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHUSD/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Ethereum</a>is trading near the key support zone around the 2,360 level and the major trendline. We can expect the dip-buyers to step in around the support and the trendline, with a defined risk below the trendline, to position for a rally into the 3,400 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will need the price to break below the trendline to open the door for new lows and target the 1,900 level next.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the break below the minor upward trendline led to a selloff as more sellers piled in on the break to target the 2,360 support. We have also a downward trendline around the 2,600 level that could act as resistance. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to position for a drop into the support and the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 3,400 level next.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the 1 hour chart, we can see the price is consolidating inside a tight box between the 2,485 and 2,535 levels. A break on either side will likely increase the momentum and extend the moves. From a risk management perspective, though, it would be better to wait for the US CPI release as we could see big moves in case of surprises. The red lines define the <a href="https://investinglive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">average daily range</a> for today.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 103%; font-size: 15px;"><a href="https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Today</a> we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US PPI, the US Retail Sales and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.