Ethereum struggles to break out of the range as macro headwinds cap the upside. What to watch?

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Ethereum has been stuck in a range for over a week now as negative macro conditions capped further gains. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">The Ethereum Foundation announced on September 28 that the Glamsterdam upgrade's first public test on Sepolia is scheduled for October 6. Glamsterdam is important for Ethereum because it is designed to increase the network’s capacity and scalability. The increased capacity could ultimately lead to additional network usage and demand for Ethereum blockspace that translates into greater economic value. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">On the macro side, the US and Iran are still engaged in negotiations to amend Iran’s recent proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days under certain conditions. The disagreement now reportedly centres on the sequencing of the steps rather than the components of the plan. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">Iran's government spokesperson said yesterday that the Foreign Minister Araghchi presented to the cabinet "a US proposal", although no further details were given. Traders will therefore keep a close eye on the headlines for more information.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-s-williams-one-more-hike-likely-this-year-is-likely-enough/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Fed’s Williams</a>provided some support to the crypto market after he said that he didn’t see any urgency after the September hike and that one further hike was likely if the economy performed as expected. His comments triggered a dovish repricing and the odds for a rate hike in October fell from 70% to 45%. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Finally, the US Core PCE surprised to the downside yesterday lowering further October hike probabilities. Keep in mind, though, that the PCE data surprised to the downside mainly due to BEA's annual methodological update and revisions. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">In fact, the BEA changed how some prices are constructed. There was enough uncertainty around these changes that economists had warned beforehand that the revisions could materially lower reported core PCE. All in all, it wasn’t a game changer.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Looking ahead, the focus will remain mainly on US-Iran developments. A breakthrough would be positive for Ethereum as the aggressive Fed rate hike bets will likely get pared back. A negative outcome or a prolonged stalemate, on the other hand, will likely continue to keep a lid on the risk sentiment and the crypto market. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHUSD/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Ethereum</a>is still consolidating near the major upward trendline. We can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to position for a rally into the 3,000 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 2,360 level next. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we have a resistance zone around the 2,740 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past days. The sellers will likely continue to step in around the resistance, with a defined risk above it, to keep targeting a break below the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the 3,000 level next.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the resistance and on the break of the trendline, while the buyers will look for a rejection around the trendline or a break above the resistance to position for new highs.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 103%; font-size: 15px;"><a href="https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar" rel="follow">Today</a>we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. The focus, though, will remain on US-Iran developments.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.