Solana consolidates at a key trendline as US-Iran talks and Alpenglow mainnet activation remain in focus

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">In terms of idiosyncratic catalysts, Alpenglow, which is Solana's major consensus upgrade, went live on Solana's public testnet on September 24 and devnet on September 25, replacing TowerBFT with the new Votor consensus mechanism. The upgrade targets a reduction in finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds. The rollout is occurring in phases and it’s one of the largest protocol upgrades in Solana’s history. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">Looking ahead, Alpenglow testnet performance and bugs will be monitored as successful testing would strengthen the upgrade narrative, while problems could push back expectations. The most important event will be the mainnet activation announcement, which doesn’t have a clear date yet.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 103%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">On the macro side, renewed optimism around US-Iran talks helped ease the previous tensions. Both sides are still engaged in negotiations to amend Iran’s recent proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days under certain conditions. The disagreement now reportedly centres on the sequencing of the steps rather than the components of the plan. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 103%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Moreover, <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-s-williams-one-more-hike-likely-this-year-is-likely-enough/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Fed’s Williams</a> yesterday gave the crypto market some support after he said that he didn’t see any urgency after the September hike and that one further hike was likely if the economy performed as expected. His comments triggered a dovish repricing and the odds for a rate hike in October fell from 70% to 45%. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 103%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Looking ahead, the focus will remain mainly on US-Iran developments. A breakthrough would be positive for Solana in the short-term as the aggressive Fed rate hike bets will likely get pared back. A negative outcome or a prolonged stalemate, on the other hand, will likely continue to keep a lid on the risk sentiment and the crypto market. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">On the daily chart, we can see that <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/SOLUSD/" rel="follow">Solana</a> is consolidating around the 120.00 level. We have a major trendline defining the bullish structure. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to keep pushing into the 149.00 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the 97.00 support.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">On the 4 hour chart, we have a minor trendline acting as support. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline around the 108.00 level.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">On the 1 hour chart, we have a tight range between the 117.00 and 121.00 levels. The market participants will likely continue to play the range by buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout on either side.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 102%; font-size: 15px;"><a href="https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar" rel="follow">Today</a> we have the US ADP and the US PCE price index. Tomorrow, we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. The focus, though, will remain on US-Iran developments.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.