Zcash tumbled by more than 20% from the all-time high amid ETF outflows and geopolitical tensions. What's next?

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 104%; font-size: 15px;">FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 104%; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">Grayscale's ZCSH ETF recorded approximately $93.6 million of net outflows in the week ending October 2, its first negative week since late August. The increasingly negative geopolitical developments in the past weeks and Fed rate hike expectations might have been behind the outflows since most of the Zcash-specific good news have been already priced in. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 103%; font-size: 15px;">Moreover, Zcash activated NU7 on public testnet on October 4, slightly ahead of the previously expected October 6 date. The upgrade reduced target block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while also introducing a Network Sustainability Mechanism and new limits for shielded transactions. Developers will assess the results and make the final mainnet activation decision on October 20, with November 5 currently targeted for mainnet activation. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; line-height: 106%; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Looking ahead, US-Iran developments will likely remain the main focus this week give the light calendar. A breakthrough in negotiations would be positive for Zcash, as it would trigger a further unwinding of aggressive Fed rate hike expectations. Conversely, a prolonged stalemate or a deterioration in the situation could continue to weigh on risk sentiment and keep a lid on the broader crypto market.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 104%; font-size: 15px;">ZCASH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">On the daily chart, we can see that <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ZECUSD/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Zcash</a>broke below the major upward trendline and extended the losses as the sellers piled in to target a drop into the 1,031 level next. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in, with a defined risk below the level, to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the 800.00 level next.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 104%; font-size: 15px;">ZCASH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">On the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward counter-trendline defining the recent pullback. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to position for a rally into the 1,500 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1,031 level next.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 104%; font-size: 15px;">ZCASH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish move into the 4-hour trendline. If we get a bounce on the 4-hour trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on the downward trendline, with a defined risk above it, to keep targeting new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1,500 level next.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 104%; font-size: 15px;">UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 103%; font-size: 15px;"><a href="https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar" rel="follow">Today</a>we get the US ISM Services PMI. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.